A NY Perspective -- 9/18 -- 9/20

NYReb · Sep 16, 2003

Last week: 8-7 +8.3*
Season: 24-24 -29.8*

I finally got my 10*s right last week, going 4-0. Trouble is I went 0-6 on my 7*s. Got help going 4-1 with the 5*s. I am even for the season on wins and loses, but somehow am still far behind in units. Oh, well, I'll continue to whittle them down. Hopefully a big week is in store.

Thursday:
5* Texas A&M +15.5
Grabbed this one at Olympic yesterday. Seems to be going down. This just seems like too many points to give Coach Franchione to play with. I'd imagine he's kept a lot hidden in their first two games, and that he will have some surprises for the Hokies. A&M has recruited well over the past few years, and if you go up and down their lineup and recruiting charts you can see that they have talent everywhere. Franchione just needs to blend it together into a well-oiled unit, and I think he's just the guy to do it. I admired him when he led New Mexico to an undefeated season a few years ago, and his career has gone about like I expected. Look for A&M to keep this game under the number.

Saturday:
5* UConn -24
UConn will come to play after losing their last game to BC, and Buffalo is just the team to get well against. The Bull lost last week to 1-AA Colgate of all teams by 38-15. They did play Rutgers close earlier, losing 24-10, but UConn is more than 10 points better than Rutgers. I look for the Huskies to be flying high on Saturday.

5* Tulane -16.5
This is as much a play against Army as a play on Tulane. The linesman will catch up with Army soon, but I don't think the Cadets can stop this high-flying offense. Tulane has too many weapons, with Losman at QB, Moore at RB, and Williams at WR. They have their weaknesses, but unfortunately Army doesn't have anything to exploit them with. I doubt that Tulane will be looking ahead to Texas the following week. They'd better take their victories where they can find them.

5* South Carolina -13
After getting demolished by Georgia last week, the Cocks will be looking to get something going against the UAB Blazers. Blazer QB Hackney is fun to watch, but he makes too many mistakes and has a very weak supporting cast. If the Cocks could hang 31 points on Virginia, they should be able to cover this modest spread.

More later.

NYReb · Sep 17, 2003

SEC Hot Games:

7* Florida -2.5
I'm tempted to say that Tennessee is overrated, but I guess they aren't thought of highly enough to say that. I've gone against them in their first two games with Fresno and Marshall and covered nicely. I feel absolutely fine in going against them a third time here. Zook is building his kind of team in Gainesville, and they look a little more all on the same page than they did last year. I traditionally go with the Gators over the Vols, as they have consistently covered. Florida is 8-3-1 ATS in this game in the last 12, and I was on the Gators in every one of those games. Why stop now? Gators are also 11-4-1 in their last 16 SEC openers. I feel that the Gators are every bit as talented as Tennessee at every position except QB, and I am no big fan of Clausen. If I'm gonna be in the Swamp with 86,000 screaming Gators, I want to be riding with them and not against them.

7* LSU pk (Olympic)
Let's see, I was able to get LSU pk at home because...? I don't know. Georgia has looked great, but I'm not so sure they've been really challenged yet. They usually win by having the advantage in the trenches, but not so in this game. LSU has the same stud hosses to push and shove right back. In fact, like Florida and Tennessee, LSU matches up with the Dawgs at every position except QB. I like that the Tigers haven't had to show much this season, as they've hardly worked up a sweat beating up on their 1st 3 opponents. Some will say they haven't faced anyone, but these guys have been to war before, make no mistake about it. Their lineup is dripping with highly recruited talent, and most are experienced. I like the Tigers to win this one at home against what might still prove to be an overrated Georgia team.

NYReb · Sep 17, 2003

10* Oregon +8
This game has all the makings of a monumental upset. Michigan has enjoyed 3 straight easy covers, so we get a break in the line right off the bat. In the last 5 years Oregon has been a home dog only once, and that was last season when powerful USC came in as a 1-point favorite. Historically, teams suffer a letdown following the Notre Dame game -- and the Wolverines being an unexpected blowout winner last week might make this letdown even more so. Autzen Stadium is one of the very worst places for a visiting team to play, especially one that's never been there before and experienced the fans breathing down your neck and shouting into your ears. To top it off, Oregon has a pretty good team with talent in all the right positions. Michigan has a great team and they are fully deserving of all the respect they have received so far. It's just that a lot of situations favor an Oregon cover in this game, and an outright upset wouldn't shock me.

Other games will be posted in this same thread later.

NASDAQ · Sep 17, 2003

Good stuff man, keep it up.

jwunderdog · Sep 17, 2003

GL, good write-ups I am on the opposite side of two of yours ,which may be a good sign for you. Do not like Tulane on a slow surface and their run defense is awful. Like your Oregon play, on opposite side of Fla hopefully they win by 3 I have 3.5. GL on everyone but Tulane.

CoachLT · Sep 17, 2003

Reb, I will be in the Swamp also. Do you know where your seats are? I will be in sec13 row 65 seat 20. Have you been to The Swamp Restaurant? I am a bit apprehensive about the Tenn game but I love the LSU and Oregon games. I played Bowling Green @+15.5,Ariz St @+9,Tex Tech@ +7, N. Illinois @+14.5, and Missouri -20 for early plays. I just played BC +13. Maybe we can meet before the game if you want to. Thanks for sharing your insights and knowledge. LT

BigGamesOnly · Sep 17, 2003

The Reb has spoken!

I'm really liking Fla -2.5 at home. Look how well they did against Miami until the Canes came back. They played a "statement" game the following week by covering the spread. I feel they still need to be vindicated in the polls so they will put on a good show against a good team.

I'm also looking at UConn and Tulane simply because they are playing horrible teams. I bet on Rutgers when they played Army (on your suggestion).

I'll report back later when I've done some more research.

NYReb · Sep 17, 2003

GATOR COACH, I was speaking figuratively when I said I would be "in the Swamp." I will be there in spirit only, watching the game on TV. Too bad, I would have loved to meet up with you. Good luck on your plays. I'm looking at Arizona St and BC pretty closely. Take care.

CoachLT · Sep 17, 2003

I will root for you! Looking forward to your other plays. LT

BigDaddyNole · Sep 17, 2003

Tenn looks like a nice play based on the "rushing system"

CoachLT · Sep 18, 2003

Reb,go check out SIA, Sportsinteraction.com,on college football odds. They still have Ohio St. -14.5. They are the only people that still have it up. LT

NYReb · Sep 18, 2003

Two Live Dogs:

5* Texas Tech +7
The rationale behind this pick is that teams who play in multiple overtimes against the defending national champion the previous week do not play up to par the following week. I doubt there are any stats to support this as a trend, but take my word for it. Multiple overtimes take a lot more out of the teams involved than many people might suspect. The Wolfpack will not play like their old selves on Saturday. Texas Tech, on the other hand, has rested last weekend and enjoyed watching the Wolfpack play their hearts out on TV. There is also a revenge motive from last year, which will further stir the hearts of the Red Raiders. The Wolfpack definitely has the better team and are at home, and I won fairly easily with them last week against Ohio St when I knew they would be sky high. But there is no way I can consider backing them this week, as it is a definite "go against" situation.

5* Arizona St +8
The more I look at this teams the more evenly matched they seem. Iowa has been a bit more impressive, but the Sun Devils have probably been hiding a lot in order to unleash it on Saturday. We will see the talents of super QB Andrew Walter and an extremely talented RB Mike Williams, and a solid lineup surrounds them. The defense is good enough to slow Iowa down. I think the Hawkeyes have been running on last year's momentum and maybe aided by the ghosts of last season's players so far, but Saturday it all comes to a halt. They will be amazed at how much better the Sun Devils look in person than they did in the films of the first two games. Outright upset is possible.

CoachLT · Sep 18, 2003

You are preaching now brother ! LT

BigGamesOnly · Sep 18, 2003

Being an ASU fan for quite some time I feel I must chime in here. ASU's defense is poor to say the least. They gave up an average of over 37 points per game in their last 5 games last year. In their first 2 games this year they gave up 321 yards passing to Northern Arizona and 299 yards passing to Utah State.

QB Walter can get things done but I feel there must be a comment made about ASU's pourous pass defense here.

NYReb · Sep 18, 2003

Thanks for chiming in

CoachLT · Sep 18, 2003

Arizona State is The Gold Sheets Super Power Play of the week. This is their first one of the year. LT

NYReb · Sep 18, 2003

7* Boston College +13
Miami still haven't convinced me that they are their usual powerhouse selves. BC's running game is strong enough to keep this game close. If you like trends, the home team has covered the last 6 games and is 8-1 ATS in the last 9.

5* Purdue -26.5
OK, I've been looking at this one ever since Sunday night, and I'm finally gonna go with it. Although I don't think Purdue has scored this many points in a game this season, they haven't played Arizona yet either. The Wildcats might upset someone if they played with any intensity, but they're going through the motions, waiting until Mackovic gets fired. Meanwhile, Purdue's defense is too good to let Zona get anything going even if they wanted to. I gotta keep going against this team until they prove they can cover a spread.

5* N Texas St +22
I guess I'm gonna go with the classic sandwich recipe in this one. Arkansas played their GOY against Texas last week and will need to play another one next week against Alabama. How interested are they going to be in the Mean Green? I think they're going to rest some players and play a lot of reserves in the second half. In the end, they're simply not going to care enough about this game to cover.

silver7 · Sep 19, 2003

NoTx, is my #2 rated gm of the wk, for the reasons stated. Huge emotional edge here.

BigGamesOnly · Sep 19, 2003

I like No. Tex. as well for the reason you state. I think that is a valid trend so far in the young season.

I'll have more games like this in my write-up.

Jarbo · Sep 19, 2003

About the LSU pick. Unless they moved this game to a night contest I will go against LSU. LSU coach has openly complained that LSU loses home field advantage in day games and that he HATES playing day games. Not very scientific, I know.

IMHO

Luck